Clarity in a Complex World

Analysis & Research

Bernie Should Drop Out of the Democratic Primary

It is Sunday the 22nd of March 2020 and there are two candidates left in the 2020 Democratic Primary. There is also an International Crisis of the COVID-19 Pandemic sweeping across the globe. As it stands, the two Democratic Primary contestants, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders remain steadfast in staying in the race in the hope of taking on the incumbent, President Trump, but only one has a realistic shot of doing so - Joe Biden.

As of today, Joe Biden holds 1201 Delegates and Bernie Sanders holds 896 of the 1991 Delegates needed to win. Hypothetically, if each candidate would get half of the remaining delegates, Joe Biden would win with 2031 Delegates.

Most races barely diverge from a few percentage points away from a 50/50 split in a two-way race - that is why every vote counts. That said, Bernie’s, base is very passionate and it is possible, however unlikely, that Bernie could get a 10 point landslide in every race going forward. Even so, all it would do is cause a brokered convention with neither candidate getting the necessary delegates to secure the nomination.

Bernie himself in a previous debate remarked that ‘the candidate with the most votes should get the nomination’. So what would that look like for Bernie to get the most votes?

In order to do so, Bernie needs to get 60% of the vote - in every election. After that, there would still be a brokered convention

Right now the world is panicked and it needs unified leadership with resolve to address the issues at hand. A brokered convention will make a bad situation worse by causing more anxiety about the direction of the country. It will keep us divided in a time where we need to be working together to solve our common problems.

Joe Biden’s vision for the country is not dissimilar from Bernie’s. Biden calls for investments in infrastructure - broadband internet, highways, rail, and energy - and in education. He wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour and strengthen unions. Biden however, is not doing the best job articulating those points to Bernie’s supporters.

Democracy is not winner take all. It is about concession and finding common ground. It is about doing the most good for the most people based upon the will of the majority. Some might call it the tyranny of the majority, but those that do, should be persuasive when redressing their grievances If they do, they might find that they have more in common with those they seemingly oppose than not.